← TCJ Revelfest No-Banlist tournament
Fire EruptingTier 1
at TCJ Revelfest No-Banlist tournament
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.4%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
56.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1337
· median 1337
· range 1305–1369
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1166
Q3 1347
1493
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
